Johns Hopkins Interdisciplinary Zoom Webinar Series, Advancing evidence-based decision making for COVID19.
An interdisciplinary forum to advance evidence-based decision making for COVID19 and future pandemics. We welcome researchers from Hopkins and around the country in economics, epidemiology, (bio)statistics, ethics, systems science, and beyond as well as anyone seeking to learn more about emerging models to inform COVID19 decision making.
Most Recent Event
COVID-19 Symposium at Hopkins: Navigating the pandemic when effective vaccines are in the policy toolbox
Friday, November 20, 2020
8:00-11:30 ET Via Zoom
8:00-9:00 KEYNOTE: Dr. Anthony Fauci delivers Medicine Grand Rounds
Moderator: Sanjay Desai, Director, Osler Medical Residency, Professor of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine. Video Recording Here
9:00-10:15 PANEL 1: Barriers and strategies to achieving optimal COVID-19 vaccination rates
COVID-19 vaccines have the potential to deliver enormous social value. As vaccines get approved and allocated across the nation and the globe, realizing the full potential of vaccines will depend on enough people getting vaccinated to make the spread of the virus unlikely. What strategies will be more effective optimizing vaccination rates? Can financial incentives help to induce people to get vaccinated? What behavioral factors need to be taken into account? Video Recording Here
Alison Buttenheim, Associate Professor of Nursing and Health Policy, and Scientific Director of the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Robert Litan, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Daniel Polsky, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Health Policy and Economics at Johns Hopkins University, and Director of the Hopkins Business of Health Initiative, Daniel Salmon, Director, Institute for Vaccine Safety, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
Moderator: Mario Macis, Professor of Economics, Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School and Affiliate Faculty, Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics
10:15-11:30 PANEL 2: The pandemic in 2021: setting policy priorities and filling evidence gaps
The landscape of managing through the pandemic will be altered as a result of the introduction of vaccines. How can policy makers navigate through policy options to reduce transmission and optimize wellbeing when the options expand beyond non-pharmaceutical interventions to include strategies to optimize vaccination rates? As these decisions become more complex with potentially negative interactions between strategies, we assess decision making needs and emerging tools to help navigate the inherent tradeoffs. Video Recording Here
Beate Jahn, Assistant Professor, University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology (UMIT) Hall i.T, Austria, and Vice President, Society for Medical Decision Making, Uwe Siebert, Professor of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment (HTA), Chair of the Department of Public Health, Health Services Research and HTA at UMIT, Shan Liu, Associate Professor, Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Nilanjan Chatterjee, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Biostatistics and Genetic Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Dan Gorenstein, Executive Producer & Co-Host, Tradeoffs Podcast
Moderator: Kathy McDonald, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Health Systems, Quality and Safety, Johns Hopkins University, and Co-Chair Covid-19 Decision Modeling Initiative (CDMI) with Society for Medical Decision Making, Discussion Materials Here
Organized by: Hopkins Business of Health Initiative, BSPH
And thank you to facilitating organizations from throughout the Johns Hopkins community reflecting the true interdisciplinary spirit of this Webinar Series:
- JHU Modeling & Policy Hub
- Department of Economics, KSAS
- Department of Epidemiology, BSPH
- Department of Health Policy and Management, BSPH
- Carey Business School
- Alliance for a Healthier World
- Bloomberg American Health Initiative Evidence Workgroup
5/7/20 Rationing Medical Resources in a Pandemic
Presenter: Tayfun Sonmez, PhD, Professor of Economics, Boston College Discussant: Allen Kachalia, MD, JD, Senior Vice President for Patient Safety and Quality, Director of the Armstrong Institute for Patient Safety and Quality Moderator: Daniel Polsky, PhD, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Health Policy and Economics
The paper Leaving No Ethical Value Behind: Triage Protocol Design for Pandemic Rationing (Authors: Parag A. Pathak, Tayfun Sonmez, M Utku Unver, and M Bumin Yenmez) was presented and a discussion of real-world implications followed. The paper presents an alternative to most existing triage protocols which are based on a priority point system, in which a formula specifies the order in which the supply of a resource, such as a ventilator, is to be rationed for patients. This alternative is a reserve system, where resources are placed into multiple categories. Priorities guiding allocation of units can reflect different ethical values between these categories. A reserve system provides additional flexibility over a priority point system because it does not dictate a single priority order for the allocation of all units. It offers a middle-ground approach that balances competing objectives, such as in the medical worker debate. Link to full paper. There were over 150 live attendees.
5/21/20 Economists and Epidemiologists, Not at Odds, but in Agreement.
Panelists: Nick Papageorge, PhD, Associate Professor of Economics from the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences and David Dowdy, MD, PhD, Associate Professor of Epidemiology in the Bloomberg School of Public Health. Moderator: Daniel Polsky, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and Policy
Video recording here. This webinar explored areas where collaboration between disciplines can advance modeling and evidence for decision making in ways that can’t be fully realized when working within a single discipline. Speakers emphasized their areas of interest, exploring similarities and differences. They discussed specific challenges in putting together insights from both disciplines and identified areas for future collaborative work. There were 330 live attendees.
6/2/20 Age-targeted lockdown: a reasonable strategy for COVID-19 control?
Presenters: Daron Acemoglu (MIT), Victor Chernozhukov (MIT), Iván Werning (MIT), and Michael Whinston (MIT) Discussants: Ruth Faden (JHU Berman Institute of Bioethics) and Jessica Metcalf (Princeton University). Moderator: Mario Macis (JHU Carey Business School)
Video recording here. Presenters shared results from their recent study “A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown” which examines the potential impact of a targeted lockdown of older age groups in combination with other interventions to control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Presentation of results will be followed by a discussion of epidemiologic and ethical considerations of age-targeted lockdowns. Link to the paper. There were 230 live attendees.
7/1/20 Modeling COVID from the society to the individual: weighing the tradeoffs
Presenter: Michèle Tertilt, Department of Economics, Mannheim University Discussant: Melissa A. Marx, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Moderator: Nicholas W. Papageorge, Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
Video recording here. This webinar will explore the value of enriching a COVID-19 model to incorporate more of the detailed choices people make. While more of the nuances of policy can be explored, the challenges of tractability and transparency grow. To start the conversation, Dr. Tertlilt will share results from her recent study “An Economic Model of the COVID-19 Epidemic: The Importance of Testing and Age-Specific Policies” which augments a standard SIR epidemiological model with individual choices regarding how much time to spend working and consuming outside the house, both of which increase the risk of transmission to examine the potential impact of a targeted lockdown of older age groups in combination with other interventions to control the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Link to the paper: https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13265 . There were 85 live attendees.
8/26/20 Exploring the balance between social distancing measures and their associated social and economic costs
Presenter: Meagan Fitzpatrick, School of Medicine University of Maryland. Discussants: Zoe McLaren, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Stefan Baral, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University. Moderator: Mary Kathryn Grabowski, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University.
Video Recording Here. Social distancing measures have been deployed by governments around the world to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. However, these measures also impact physical, mental and economic well-being, creating difficult trade-offs for policy-makers and societies. Which is preferable: intermittent and strict social distancing measures or temporally consistent, moderate physical distancing measures? To start the conversation, Dr. Fitzpatrick shared results from her recent study “Strict Physical Distancing May Be More Efficient: A Mathematical Argument for Making Lockdowns Count”.
10/30/20 Locking Down or Opening Up? A debate on the best path through the pandemic, discussing the John Snow Memorandum and the Great Barrington Declaration
Panel: Stefan Baral, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford University School of Medicine, David Dowdy, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Colleen F. Hanrahan, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Panel Host: Daniel Polsky, Director of the Hopkins Business of Health Initiative. Click HERE to view the Webinar Recording. There were 524 live attendees and over 2500 cumulative views of the recording.
December 20, 2019 – Convening of first HBHI Retreat